Do we have the capability to eliminate booms and busts in economic activity? The answer in my judgment is no, because there is no tool to change human nature. Too often people are prone to recurring bouts of optimism and pessimism.
November 05, 2024
At the end of October 2023 my colleague, Frank Boland, invited me to a visit with a client. I spent many years communicating with this client via email and phone calls. It was wonderful to finally meet them in person. A few short weeks later, on the day before Thanksgiving, I was at a pub with a friend when I heard the news that Frank had...
September 05, 2023
Is it possible for seven stocks to represent the economic activity of the other 493? Especially when six of the seven are essentially in the same business. Advertising, communication or both. As we all know, there are 500 stocks in the Standard & Poor’s index. What is less widely known is, the S&P index was introduced in 1957 to the “...
August 04, 2023
Ours is a unique consumer driven economy. Estimates put it at 60-63% of our GDP. If we were to think of the economy as one large operating business, it would have a 330 million customer base. Such a focus would make it not only the largest business in the world (which it is) but one whose customer base had the highest standard of living. Its...
July 12, 2023
The enclosed chart of Fed funds is illustrative of what enabled the outperformance of active managers at the start of the modern investment era and what subsequently penalized their performance for the last 30 years. The cause: it was the dramatic rise and fall in interest rates. The chart shows, the secular direction of...
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