So long as predictions remain popular, and are so numerous as they are today – and so long as they receive notoriety through repetition in the press and on the radio – contrary opinions will increase in importance as thinking aids. “
March 11, 2022
In the last century, one could walk into a building and see plant and equipment. That’s not possible in today’s knowledge/service-based economy. Assets are “soft,” even invisible. The result is that we are forced to trust the validity of published numbers. However, given the deceptions that occurred with Enron and WorldCom, we know it is risky...
February 09, 2022
A pale green Pontiac Bonneville had just pulled up to the front of my parent’s two family house. The car was a “monster.” It “dripped” of chrome and weighed in excess of 5,000 pounds. At the time, I was a 12 year-old caddy as was Peter Lynch. It was 1955 and that car was a major status symbol. The man who owned the Bonneville had been an army...
January 20, 2022
As you might recall, Cathie Wood’s ARK Disruptive Innovation fund was up an amazing 60% in 2020. The S&P 500 was up 16% that year. Thus the fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 46%! Last year it was down 25% underperforming by 50%. But that’s not why I consider the actively managed ETF a hedge fund. It’s because it has the macro...
December 22, 2021
Bank of America recently published a chart showing the entire history of long-term interest rates. The piece was titled “The 5000-Year View of Rates & the Economic Consequences.” While not from the dawn of time, it is from the dawn of civilization starting in ancient Suma. The chart showed short- and long-term rates...
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