So long as predictions remain popular, and are so numerous as they are today – and so long as they receive notoriety through repetition in the press and on the radio – contrary opinions will increase in importance as thinking aids. “
November 12, 2021
An analyst at J.P. Morgan recently wrote about Amazon, “… next year its business will exceed Walmart’s and become the largest retailer in the world.” Jeff Bezos is already one of the richest men in the world. But what is more startling; his wealth of close to $200 billion or the short timeframe in which it was created? From the time of the...
October 14, 2021
Fortunately, it is rare to see anguish on someone’s face. One day in New York, near the end of 1987, I did. The October crash was still vivid in everyone’s mind. As I opened the door of an “upstairs” trading room, I saw a friend at the far end of the long trading desk. He was standing with a phone pressed up against his head gesturing...
September 15, 2021
It’s what we all hope to own. But if you don’t know what attributes it must have, you won’t find it. First, and foremost, it should be a fairly small business run by an entrepreneur. Personal pride and creativity drive a new business. Secondly, the founder must own a significant amount of stock. Such a C.E.O. has a different mindset than an...
August 12, 2021
The other day I came across an issue of Barron’s, dated January 10th 2015. The front page headline was titled, “Return of the Stock Pickers.” But it didn’t happened in the intervening six years nor has it in the past 15! The reason is, interest rates haven’t change. Fed funds have stayed at 0% because the two crises – financial and...
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