So long as predictions remain popular, and are so numerous as they are today – and so long as they receive notoriety through repetition in the press and on the radio – contrary opinions will increase in importance as thinking aids. “
October 13, 2022
Price distortion in the stock market started in 2005 with the impact of high-frequency-trading. Three years later the Fed responded to the debt crisis with 0% interest rates. Both events would lay the groundwork for price distortion. Zero percent would obliterate active stock managers and give rise to trillions in index funds. The zero-interest...
September 20, 2022
As I pulled into the parking lot of Pier 4 on the Boston harbor, I was stunned by what I saw. To my right were two colossal ocean liners, each about 1,000 feet long. The ships had large flags reading, “Welcome to DEC World.” It was 1987 and Digital Equipment was then a 14-billion-dollar computer company, second in size only to IBM. The ships...
August 22, 2022
Since 1956 there have been 10 bear market cycles when the market declined 20% or more. The first one led to the ensuing 1957 bull market that would give birth to the modern investment business. It also pioneered a new sector, then called electronics, now known as technology. In 1958, Jerry Tsai was chosen to manage the new Fidelity Capital Fund...
July 25, 2022
It is always after a stock’s decline that one discovers the reason it had previously been going down. The more parabolic (straight-up) a stock’s previous assent has been, the greater the need for a sell discipline. If you’re an investor on your own, or are looking to hire a portfolio manager, you or they must have a SELL discipline. We...
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